Infectivity enhances prediction of viral cascades in Twitter

Models of contagion dynamics, originally developed for infectious diseases, have proven relevant to the study of information, news, and political opinions in online social systems. Modelling diffusion processes and predicting viral information cascades are important problems in network science. Yet, many studies of information cascades neglect the variation in infectivity across different pieces of information. Here, we employ early-time observations of online cascades to estimate the infectivity of distinct pieces of information. Using simulations and data from real-world Twitter retweets, we demonstrate that these estimated infectivities can be used to improve predictions about the virality of an information cascade. Developing our simulations to mimic the real-world data, we consider the effect of the limited effective time for transmission of a cascade and demonstrate that a simple model of slow but non-negligible decay of the infectivity captures the essential properties of retweet distributions. These results demonstrate the interplay between the intrinsic infectivity of a tweet and the complex network environment within which it diffuses, strongly influencing the likelihood of becoming a viral cascade

Adaptive Evolutionary Clustering

In many practical applications of clustering, the objects to be clustered evolve over time, and a clustering result is desired at each time step. In such applications, evolutionary clustering typically outperforms traditional static clustering by producing clustering results that reflect long-term trends while being robust to short-term variations. Several evolutionary clustering algorithms have recently been proposed, often by adding a temporal smoothness penalty to the cost function of a static clustering method. In this paper, we introduce a different approach to evolutionary clustering by accurately tracking the time-varying proximities between objects followed by static clustering. We present an evolutionary clustering framework that adaptively estimates the optimal smoothing parameter using shrinkage estimation, a statistical approach that improves a naive estimate using additional information. The proposed framework can be used to extend a variety of static clustering algorithms, including hierarchical, k-means, and spectral clustering, into evolutionary clustering algorithms. Experiments on synthetic and real data sets indicate that the proposed framework outperforms static clustering and existing evolutionary clustering algorithms in many scenarios.Comment: To appear in Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, MATLAB toolbox available at http://tbayes.eecs.umich.edu/xukevin/affec

Statistical Inference for Valued-Edge Networks: Generalized Exponential Random Graph Models

Across the sciences, the statistical analysis of networks is central to the production of knowledge on relational phenomena. Because of their ability to model the structural generation of networks, exponential random graph models are a ubiquitous means of analysis. However, they are limited by an inability to model networks with valued edges. We solve this problem by introducing a class of generalized exponential random graph models capable of modeling networks whose edges are valued, thus greatly expanding the scope of networks applied researchers can subject to statistical analysis

Consensus clustering in complex networks

The community structure of complex networks reveals both their organization and hidden relationships among their constituents. Most community detection methods currently available are not deterministic, and their results typically depend on the specific random seeds, initial conditions and tie-break rules adopted for their execution. Consensus clustering is used in data analysis to generate stable results out of a set of partitions delivered by stochastic methods. Here we show that consensus clustering can be combined with any existing method in a self-consistent way, enhancing considerably both the stability and the accuracy of the resulting partitions. This framework is also particularly suitable to monitor the evolution of community structure in temporal networks. An application of consensus clustering to a large citation network of physics papers demonstrates its capability to keep track of the birth, death and diversification of topics.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures. Published in Scientific Report

Light smoking at base-line predicts a higher mortality risk to women than to men; evidence from a cohort with long follow-up

BACKGROUND: There is conflicting evidence as to whether smoking is more harmful to women than to men. The UK Cotton Workers’ Cohort was recruited in the 1960s and contained a high proportion of men and women smokers who were well matched in terms of age, job and length of time in job. The cohort has been followed up for 42 years. METHODS: Mortality in the cohort was analysed using an individual relative survival method and Cox regression. Whether smoking, ascertained at baseline in the 1960s, was more hazardous to women than to men was examined by estimating the relative risk ratio women to men, smokers to never smoked, for light (1–14), medium (15–24), heavy (25+ cigarettes per day) and former smoking. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality relative risk ratios were 1.35 for light smoking at baseline (95% CI 1.07-1.70), 1.15 for medium smoking (95% CI 0.89-1.49) and 1.00 for heavy smoking (95% CI 0.63-1.61). Relative risk ratios for light smoking at baseline for circulatory system disease was 1.42 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.98) and for respiratory disease was 1.89 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.63). Heights of participants provided no explanation for the gender difference. CONCLUSIONS: Light smoking at baseline was shown to be significantly more hazardous to women than to men but the effect decreased as consumption increased indicating a dose response relationship. Heavy smoking was equally hazardous to both genders. This result may help explain the conflicting evidence seen elsewhere. However gender differences in smoking cessation may provide an alternative explanation

A Regularized Graph Layout Framework for Dynamic Network Visualization

Many real-world networks, including social and information networks, are dynamic structures that evolve over time. Such dynamic networks are typically visualized using a sequence of static graph layouts. In addition to providing a visual representation of the network structure at each time step, the sequence should preserve the mental map between layouts of consecutive time steps to allow a human to interpret the temporal evolution of the network. In this paper, we propose a framework for dynamic network visualization in the on-line setting where only present and past graph snapshots are available to create the present layout. The proposed framework creates regularized graph layouts by augmenting the cost function of a static graph layout algorithm with a grouping penalty, which discourages nodes from deviating too far from other nodes belonging to the same group, and a temporal penalty, which discourages large node movements between consecutive time steps. The penalties increase the stability of the layout sequence, thus preserving the mental map. We introduce two dynamic layout algorithms within the proposed framework, namely dynamic multidimensional scaling (DMDS) and dynamic graph Laplacian layout (DGLL). We apply these algorithms on several data sets to illustrate the importance of both grouping and temporal regularization for producing interpretable visualizations of dynamic networks.Comment: To appear in Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, supporting material (animations and MATLAB toolbox) available at http://tbayes.eecs.umich.edu/xukevin/visualization_dmkd_201

Graph Metrics for Temporal Networks

Temporal networks, i.e., networks in which the interactions among a set of elementary units change over time, can be modelled in terms of time-varying graphs, which are time-ordered sequences of graphs over a set of nodes. In such graphs, the concepts of node adjacency and reachability crucially depend on the exact temporal ordering of the links. Consequently, all the concepts and metrics proposed and used for the characterisation of static complex networks have to be redefined or appropriately extended to time-varying graphs, in order to take into account the effects of time ordering on causality. In this chapter we discuss how to represent temporal networks and we review the definitions of walks, paths, connectedness and connected components valid for graphs in which the links fluctuate over time. We then focus on temporal node-node distance, and we discuss how to characterise link persistence and the temporal small-world behaviour in this class of networks. Finally, we discuss the extension of classic centrality measures, including closeness, betweenness and spectral centrality, to the case of time-varying graphs, and we review the work on temporal motifs analysis and the definition of modularity for temporal graphs.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures, Chapter in Temporal Networks (Petter Holme and Jari Saram\"aki editors). Springer. Berlin, Heidelberg 201

Random Walks on Stochastic Temporal Networks

In the study of dynamical processes on networks, there has been intense focus on network structure -- i.e., the arrangement of edges and their associated weights -- but the effects of the temporal patterns of edges remains poorly understood. In this chapter, we develop a mathematical framework for random walks on temporal networks using an approach that provides a compromise between abstract but unrealistic models and data-driven but non-mathematical approaches. To do this, we introduce a stochastic model for temporal networks in which we summarize the temporal and structural organization of a system using a matrix of waiting-time distributions. We show that random walks on stochastic temporal networks can be described exactly by an integro-differential master equation and derive an analytical expression for its asymptotic steady state. We also discuss how our work might be useful to help build centrality measures for temporal networks.Comment: Chapter in Temporal Networks (Petter Holme and Jari Saramaki editors). Springer. Berlin, Heidelberg 2013. The book chapter contains minor corrections and modifications. This chapter is based on arXiv:1112.3324, which contains additional calculations and numerical simulation

Community evolution in patent networks: technological change and network dynamics

When studying patent data as a way to understand innovation and technological change, the conventional indicators might fall short, and categorizing technologies based on the existing classification systems used by patent authorities could cause inaccuracy and misclassification, as shown in literature. Gao et al. (International Workshop on Complex Networks and their Applications, 2017) have established a method to analyze patent classes of similar technologies as network communities. In this paper, we adopt the stabilized Louvain method for network community detection to improve consistency and stability. Incorporating the overlapping community mapping algorithm, we also develop a new method to identify the central nodes based on the temporal evolution of the network structure and track the changes of communities over time. A case study of Germany’s patent data is used to demonstrate and verify the application of the method and the results. Compared to the non-network metrics and conventional network measures, we offer a heuristic approach with a dynamic view and more stable results